Forecasting manufacturing sales using Holt-Winters' seasonal method
Question
Suppose you're given the following dataset showing total manufacturer sales volumes in the United States by month (source). A preview of the data is below:
| DATE | MNFCTRSMNSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1992-01-01 | 209438 |
| 1 | 1992-02-01 | 232679 |
| 2 | 1992-03-01 | 249673 |
| 3 | 1992-04-01 | 239666 |
| 4 | 1992-05-01 | 243231 |
Using this data, create a model to forecast the manufacturing sales volume by month through 2025. We'll be using Holt-Winters exponential smoothing for our projections, but you're free to use whichever methodology you like, provided it's grounded in valid assumptions/is appropriate for the type of data we're dealing with.