Forecasting manufacturing sales using Holt-Winters' seasonal method


Suppose you're given the following dataset showing total manufacturer sales volumes in the United States by month (source). A preview of the data is below:

0 1992-01-01 209438
1 1992-02-01 232679
2 1992-03-01 249673
3 1992-04-01 239666
4 1992-05-01 243231

Using this data, create a model to forecast the manufacturing sales volume by month through 2025. We'll be using Holt-Winters exponential smoothing for our projections, but you're free to use whichever methodology you like, provided it's grounded in valid assumptions/is appropriate for the type of data we're dealing with.


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