Christmas M&Ms


Suppose you have two different bags of M&Ms, one is a special Christmas edition while the other is a standard bag of M&Ms. The Christmas edition contains only red, green, and white M&Ms while the standard bag contains the full color offering. The distributions of drawing a given color are below:

Christmas bag of M&Ms

  • Green: 30%
  • Red: 40%
  • White: 30%

Standard bag of M&Ms

  • Green: 20%
  • Orange: 19%
  • Blue: 19%
  • Red: 15%
  • Yellow: 14%
  • Brown: 13%

You are given an M&M from each bag, but you do not know which M&M came from which bag. One M&M is Red and one is Green. What is the probability that the Red M&M came from the Standard bag?


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